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Monday, July 15, 2013

Is the price of gold manipulated?


It is highly possible. In a paper market where no physical delivery is required, one can simultaneously buy and sell gold. E.g. if I am a large bank or a hedge fund (or the United States government, as certain gold bulls seem believe) and I want to keep the price down, I open two (or more) accounts and I trade between these at times when the market is highly illiquid (e.g. when I can easily sell to myself without interference).

This type of manipulation is often seen attempted in the stock market, where it it has to be done repeatedly to drive the price movement for a stock (for this reason, stock exchanges are monitoring the counter-parties for trades using sophisticated algorithms, so don’t try this at home…). In the market for gold, it only needs to be done from time to time, as stop-losses and margin calls on leveraged positions will escalate a downward (or upward) move.

However, it is key to note that it only works when the market is illiquid (you need fill your buy order simultaneously with your sell order in order to avoid losses). This may explain why the recent sell off in gold was initiated with a large sell order placed in the middle of the night when market liquidity was at its lowest (the worst possible timing for a profit maximizing seller), triggering the first leg down in the gold decline to $1321/ oz in April this year.

Nevertheless, unless the manipulation in the paper market is successful in amending the price expectations players of the physical market, it is doomed to be short-lived. The corresponding dynamic will be that demand for physical gold will explode (and yes, we have certainly seen that happening), eventually creating a gap between those contracts that allow for physical delivery and those that don’t.

I tend to believe that the April price move was not government manipulation, but rather a large hedge fund (most likely Goldman Sachs) who had figured out where most of the stops in the market were, and saw the opportunity to profit from a short-position by pushing the market lower. It has subsequently succeeded in scaring the lights out of retail investors, who are liquidating their ETF holdings, and changing the American and European market sentiment for gold.

At least for now.

Price of gold manipulated?
It is highly possible. In a paper market where no physical delivery is required, one can simultaneously buy and sell gold. E.g. if I am the government (or a large bank or a hedge fund) and I want to keep the price down, I open two (or more) accounts and I trade between these at times when the market is highly illiquid (e.g. when I can easily sell to myself without interference).
This type of manipulation is often seen attempted in the stock market, where it it has to be done repeatedly to drive the price movement for a stock (for this reason, stock exchanges are monitoring the counter-parties for trades using sophisticated algorithms, so don’t try this at home…). In the market for gold, it only needs to be done from time to time, as stop-losses and margin calls on leveraged positions will escalate a downward (or upward) move.
However, it is key to note that it only works when the market is illiquid (you need fill your buy order simultaneously with your sell order in order to avoid losses). This may explain why the recent sell off in gold was initiated with a large sell order placed at the point in time when market liquidity was at its lowest (the worst possible timing for a profit maximizing seller), triggering the first leg down in the gold decline to $1321/ oz in May this year.
Nevertheless, unless the manipulation in the paper market is successful in amending the price expectations players of the physical market, it is doomed to be short-lived. The corresponding dynamic will be that demand for physical gold will explode (and yes, we have certainly seen that happening), eventually creating a gap between those contracts that allow for physical delivery and those that don’t.
I tend to believe that the April price move was not government manipulation, but rather a large hedge fund (most likely close to Goldman Sachs) who had figured out where most of the stops in the market were, and saw the opportunity to profit from a short-position by pushing the market lower. It has subsequently succeeded in scaring the lights out of retail investors, who are liquidating their ETF holdings, and changing the American and European market sentiment for gold.
At least for now.
- See more at: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-the-cost-of-mining-gold#comment-15533
Price of gold manipulated?
It is highly possible. In a paper market where no physical delivery is required, one can simultaneously buy and sell gold. E.g. if I am the government (or a large bank or a hedge fund) and I want to keep the price down, I open two (or more) accounts and I trade between these at times when the market is highly illiquid (e.g. when I can easily sell to myself without interference).
This type of manipulation is often seen attempted in the stock market, where it it has to be done repeatedly to drive the price movement for a stock (for this reason, stock exchanges are monitoring the counter-parties for trades using sophisticated algorithms, so don’t try this at home…). In the market for gold, it only needs to be done from time to time, as stop-losses and margin calls on leveraged positions will escalate a downward (or upward) move.
However, it is key to note that it only works when the market is illiquid (you need fill your buy order simultaneously with your sell order in order to avoid losses). This may explain why the recent sell off in gold was initiated with a large sell order placed at the point in time when market liquidity was at its lowest (the worst possible timing for a profit maximizing seller), triggering the first leg down in the gold decline to $1321/ oz in May this year.
Nevertheless, unless the manipulation in the paper market is successful in amending the price expectations players of the physical market, it is doomed to be short-lived. The corresponding dynamic will be that demand for physical gold will explode (and yes, we have certainly seen that happening), eventually creating a gap between those contracts that allow for physical delivery and those that don’t.
I tend to believe that the April price move was not government manipulation, but rather a large hedge fund (most likely close to Goldman Sachs) who had figured out where most of the stops in the market were, and saw the opportunity to profit from a short-position by pushing the market lower. It has subsequently succeeded in scaring the lights out of retail investors, who are liquidating their ETF holdings, and changing the American and European market sentiment for gold.
At least for now.
- See more at: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-the-cost-of-mining-gold#comment-15533
Price of gold manipulated?
It is highly possible. In a paper market where no physical delivery is required, one can simultaneously buy and sell gold. E.g. if I am the government (or a large bank or a hedge fund) and I want to keep the price down, I open two (or more) accounts and I trade between these at times when the market is highly illiquid (e.g. when I can easily sell to myself without interference).
This type of manipulation is often seen attempted in the stock market, where it it has to be done repeatedly to drive the price movement for a stock (for this reason, stock exchanges are monitoring the counter-parties for trades using sophisticated algorithms, so don’t try this at home…). In the market for gold, it only needs to be done from time to time, as stop-losses and margin calls on leveraged positions will escalate a downward (or upward) move.
However, it is key to note that it only works when the market is illiquid (you need fill your buy order simultaneously with your sell order in order to avoid losses). This may explain why the recent sell off in gold was initiated with a large sell order placed at the point in time when market liquidity was at its lowest (the worst possible timing for a profit maximizing seller), triggering the first leg down in the gold decline to $1321/ oz in May this year.
Nevertheless, unless the manipulation in the paper market is successful in amending the price expectations players of the physical market, it is doomed to be short-lived. The corresponding dynamic will be that demand for physical gold will explode (and yes, we have certainly seen that happening), eventually creating a gap between those contracts that allow for physical delivery and those that don’t.
I tend to believe that the April price move was not government manipulation, but rather a large hedge fund (most likely close to Goldman Sachs) who had figured out where most of the stops in the market were, and saw the opportunity to profit from a short-position by pushing the market lower. It has subsequently succeeded in scaring the lights out of retail investors, who are liquidating their ETF holdings, and changing the American and European market sentiment for gold.
At least for now.
- See more at: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-the-cost-of-mining-gold#comment-15533
Price of gold manipulated?
It is highly possible. In a paper market where no physical delivery is required, one can simultaneously buy and sell gold. E.g. if I am the government (or a large bank or a hedge fund) and I want to keep the price down, I open two (or more) accounts and I trade between these at times when the market is highly illiquid (e.g. when I can easily sell to myself without interference).
This type of manipulation is often seen attempted in the stock market, where it it has to be done repeatedly to drive the price movement for a stock (for this reason, stock exchanges are monitoring the counter-parties for trades using sophisticated algorithms, so don’t try this at home…). In the market for gold, it only needs to be done from time to time, as stop-losses and margin calls on leveraged positions will escalate a downward (or upward) move.
However, it is key to note that it only works when the market is illiquid (you need fill your buy order simultaneously with your sell order in order to avoid losses). This may explain why the recent sell off in gold was initiated with a large sell order placed at the point in time when market liquidity was at its lowest (the worst possible timing for a profit maximizing seller), triggering the first leg down in the gold decline to $1321/ oz in May this year.
Nevertheless, unless the manipulation in the paper market is successful in amending the price expectations players of the physical market, it is doomed to be short-lived. The corresponding dynamic will be that demand for physical gold will explode (and yes, we have certainly seen that happening), eventually creating a gap between those contracts that allow for physical delivery and those that don’t.
I tend to believe that the April price move was not government manipulation, but rather a large hedge fund (most likely close to Goldman Sachs) who had figured out where most of the stops in the market were, and saw the opportunity to profit from a short-position by pushing the market lower. It has subsequently succeeded in scaring the lights out of retail investors, who are liquidating their ETF holdings, and changing the American and European market sentiment for gold.
At least for now.
- See more at: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-the-cost-of-mining-gold#comment-15533

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Doubling down on Gold? Sell-offs are about to reside.

Gold is currently trading at $1280 per ounce. The price has been pushed down after continued sell-offs by Exchange Traded Funds.

The key question is, has the gold price reached a bottom, or is it close to forming a bottom?

As shown by the below table (courtesy of the World Gold Council), the only ones who have been net sellers in q1 2013 (the key players in driving the gold price down) are the aforementioned ETFs.



With industrial demand stable and all other sources of demand increasing, the key question then becomes, can the ETF sell-off continue?

The below chart is showing the inventory of gold in COMEX vaults, which is where many professional investors store their gold (courtesy of Bloomberg finance).



As seen from the chart, inventory reduction since December 2012 corresponds to 4.5 million ounces, or close to 140 tonnes of gold. Though this is slightly less than half of total ETF sales since December, it gives a good indication of how much gold stock there is left to supply to the market.

As the chart only provides data until end of May 2013 (and we've had another month of net sell-offs), current inventory levels are likely to be around 6-6.5 million ounces, e.g. they are at the same levels as they were in 2004.

This has several implications:
  1. A sell-off of the same magnitude in the next 6 months becomes impossible, as this will take ETF inventory levels to 0. 
  2. A continued sell-off must therefore occur at lower volumes. It is therefore highly unlikely that prices will come much further down, as the market has been able to absorb the massive volumes supplied by the ETFs, with only modest price declines (yes, in my book, a 30% decline for a commodity with this magnitude of sell-offs of is modest)
  3. There is huge upside in gold once the sell-off is completed. As ETFs are momentum buyers (the public is always displaying herd mentality and are following the trend), they will return to gold once the prices stop dropping. It is key to note, that the market was clearing around the $1700/oz level before the ETF sell-off started.

As mentioned in a previous article, the gold price is not mainly determined by the sentiment of the American public, at least not in the long run. It is driven by wage inflation in Asia and other economies where people either do not trust the local banking system (India) or want to store their wealth in assets that are hidden from the eyes of the local authorities (China). Nevertheless, ETFs provide the residual demand and supply that gives the gold price extra volatility. American inflation is therefore not a requirement to support the gold price, but is the trigger that will reignite price momentum once it takes place.